Saturday, March 26, 2011

year end derivatives expiry may increase volatility

BSE Sensex (18815.64) and Nifty (5654.25) closed up by 5.2% and 5.21% respectively last week.Nifty Future March was quoting at 20.75 points premium.Nifty call option March 5600 was very active.Support for Sensex is at 18120. Resistance for Sensex is at 19550 .Support for Nifty is at 5450 and resistance at 5875..
The RBI hiked the repo rate and reverse repo rate in the last meet.High crude oil and commodity prices remain a cause of concern in the near term.
SBI and ICICI BANK added Open Interest in March series.Huge position was build up at SBI March Call Option Strike Price 2700.Good build up was also seen at INFOSYS March Call Option Strike Price 3100.
Strategy for Futures Option players.

1)INFOSYS(3163.05) Lot Size-125 Shares
Buy One Call Option of March Strike Price 3150.00@44.00 Rs
Sell One Call Option of March Strike Price 3200.00@23.50 Rs.
Premium .Paid=44.00*125=5500.00Rs.
Premium Received=23.50*125= 2937.50 Rs.
Net Premium Paid==5500.00-2937.50=2562.50 Rs.
Maximum Profit==3200-3150==50*125=6250.00-2562.50.00=3687.50 Rs.
Maximum Loss= 2562.50 Rs.
Break Even Price=3170.50

2)NTPC(183.40) Future-Lot Size 1000 shares.
Buy One Lot March Future @183.40 Rs
Sell One Call Option of March Strike Price 190@0.40 Rs.
Premium Received=0.40*1000= 400.00 Rs
Maximum Profit=190.00-183.40=6.60*1000=6600.00+400.00=7000.00 Rs.
Max Loss=Unlimited.
Trend of Major Stocks
STOCK TREND Days WeeklyTrend MonthlyTrend

BHEL.NS Bulllish 4 Rising Flat!
INFOSYSTC.NS Bulllish 3 Rising Flat!
ITC.NS Bulllish 3 Rising Flat!
TATASTEEL.NS Bulllish 6 Rising Flat!
TCS.NS Bulllish 2 Rising Flat!








Technical indicators of major Stocks
MFI=Money Flow Index
RSI=Relative Strength Index
ADX=Directional Momentum Index
STOCK CLOSE MFI-21 RSI-14 ADX-14
BHEL.NS 2090.95 53.58 56.79 25.4
INFOSYSTC.NS 3163.05 47.7 60.15 17.98
ITC.NS 177.45 65.42 65.73 16.81
TATASTEEL.NS 615.45 48.84 52.05 13.75
TCS.NS 1119.65 41.9 53.66 22.12





Trading Idea
1)HDFC BANK(2265.05)Buy this stock in decline and trade.
2)IOB(147.10) Buy this stock in decline and trade






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